Modeling and Simulation of Multi-faceted Decision-Making
PSE is conducting on-going research on the interaction between organization, culture and work processes in decision-making. Our research team has identified factors that influence the decision process of both individual and team decision-makers in order to simulate how cultural differences affect human decision-making.
I-DecS - Integrative Decision Space Model
The Integrative Decision Space Model (I-DecS) includes the influence of national culture, organizational parameters and decision-maker training and experience on the outcome attributes of organizational work process. This model was the result of work done for the Office of Naval Research under the Modeling and Simulation of Cultural Differences in Human Decision-making program. The four component models include cultural predispositions as well as each decision-maker's position in the organization, his experience and training, and the complexity of the task he is assigned. The interaction of these models in the decision space using the integrating algorithm provides a multi-faceted view of a decision process. I-DecS is flexible enough to allow for addition or modification of variables as development continues.
Phase II will implement the integrative algorithm and modified knowledge bases developed in Phase I to produce the I-DecS Analytical System (I-DecS AnSys). This system will allow the model to be used to highlight potential cultural mismatches and to modify the decision space to better accommodate cultural, organization, process, and individual cognitive differences. As a decision support tool, it will improve the ability of the U.S. military to work with a diverse mix of forces by forecasting the effect of cultural, organizational, process, and individual differences on a decision process. As a modeling and simulation tool, it will also allow users to iteratively compare sets of alternative actions and/or outcomes for different configurations of the decision space.
OCP - Organizational Cultural Parameters
This was an additional research project performed in conjunction with the Phase I work. This research identified and included organizational cultural parameters in the Integrative Decision Space (I-DecS) Model. A decision-maker is a member of an organization and is accustomed to fulfilling a role in that organization's work process. The organizational culture can be represented by parameters in the work process in which the decision-maker is participating. Five organizational cultural parameters have been identified: Authority Distance, Interface Culture, Command Authority, Doctrine and Hierarchical Arrangement. Including these organizational cultural parameters in the I-DecS Model allows the prediction of outcome changes for a work process when interacting decision-makers have similar national cultures but whose organizational culture is different.
I-DecS+S - Integrative Decision Space with Stress
This is the Phase I Option research work, which will include variations due to external conditions in the I-DecS model. External stresses and time pressures may be inserted into calculations in the decision space to influence performance outcomes. It is well documented that varying situational conditions, such as time pressure, affect the perceived decision constraints of the decision-maker. These changes in perceived constraints then have varying effects on the individual decision-maker, depending on his cultural biases (e.g. how comfortable he is with uncertainty) and his experience (e.g. how much he has trained in adverse conditions). These variables will reside in the decision-maker component model.
DSSCO - Decision Support System for Coalition Operations
DSSCO was an Office of Naval Research sponsored project that applied and integrated organizational design concepts and decision support technologies in planning and executing civilian and military coalition (multinational) operations. DSSCO focused on how organizational and cultural factors impacted multinational task performance of cooperating, multinational, military and civilian agencies. The DSSCO database contains specialized information about coalition organizations and cultures. This system is currently in operational use at PACOM (J30-OPT).
CADM - Cognitive Aspects of Decision-Making
This project characterized decision and information processing variables in relation to specific cultural dimensions to generate a greater understanding of how people with different cultural backgrounds make decisions in a dynamic information environment. CADM identified cultural variations in situation assessment decision-making by combining extant research on cultural dimensions with findings based on empirical data collected during laboratory experiments.
TADMUS - Tactical Decision Making Under Stress
This was an Office of Naval Research program conducted to apply developments in decision theory and human system interaction technology to the design of a decision support system for enhancing tactical decision-making under the highly complex conditions involved in anti-air warfare.
PSE developed a decision support system in which display concepts derived from cognitive theory were evaluated and demonstrated. The system was shown to enhance awareness of the tactical situation, which contributed to more effective performance. Research conducted with this project identified the relationship between environmental stressors, such as time compression and highly ambiguous information, with increased decision biases.
Future Research
Planned future efforts in this research area include the addition of Risk Assessment into the decision making algorithm (DM&R) as well as the influence of culture on the formation of trust in temporary groups.
